Abraham Loeb, Edwin L. Turner. arxiv.org. March 13, 2012.
Loeb and Turner propose tracking brightness changes with distance to help distinguish intrinsic illumination from reflected sunlight. The model requires assumptions about luminosity, geometry, spectrum and albedo. They retain conventional variability from phase, surfaces, outgassing, rotation and binary effects, plus cloud and geometry limitations for exoplanets. Historical telescope forecasts and inconclusive null results limit the proposal. The paper reports no artificial-light detection or replicated experiment.
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Amaya Moro-Martín, Edwin L. Turner, Abraham Loeb. arxiv.org. September 14, 2009.
Moro-Martín, Turner and Loeb model ordinary interstellar planetesimals using uncertain stellar populations, ejection, size distributions and albedo. Their historical 2009 forecast for inactive objects gives a conditional lifetime expectation of order 0.0001–0.01, described as about a 0.01%–1% chance of one detection. A larger narrow-size scenario is explicitly unsupported by cited constraints. Figures and tables are theoretical scenarios. Survey selection, activity, disruption and survival limit the forecast. No new detection, artificiality or experimental replication is established.
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Abraham Loeb, Matias Zaldarriaga. arxiv.org. November 19, 2006.
Loeb and Zaldarriaga forecast searches for accidental radio leakage with then-proposed astronomical observatories. Detectability depends on bandwidth, observing time, beam direction, duty cycle and interference. The figure and table share historical Earth-emission assumptions. Proposed orbital and habitability inferences were not performed measurements. A hypothetical relay-station private communication is attributed but unavailable. The paper reports no extraterrestrial detection; named funding is distinguished by recipient.
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Peter Nockolds, Paul Withers. sirius.bu.edu. 2002.
Nockolds proposes distortion or propaganda as an alternative explanation for the medieval account. Withers acknowledges limited Latin and chronicle access and reports a later translation discussion. The exchange preserves competing interpretations and dependence on the same historical narrative.
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Withers tests a proposed 1178 lunar-impact date through a conditional ejecta and meteor-storm model, historical record absence and other dating arguments. The paper questions that date; its model and narrative analysis do not establish what the reported observers saw.
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