Paper · S7761
Kepler-1708 b-i is likely undetectable with HST
A simulation estimates HST recovery if the proposed Kepler-1708 moon exists. Seven of75 trials meet all requirements; conditional10±3% detectability is separate from the probability a moon exists. Optimistic systematics and JWST forecasts remain assumptions, with no independent detection or UAP claim.
Read the paper at arxiv.orgWhat we checked
All8 received text pages and whole native layouts were read, including references, appendix, Figures1–5 and75-trial Table1:42,039 LF-normalized extracted characters. Root reviewed the whole analytical packet and exact pins. Official metadata advertises6 figures while only five numbered figures appear in this rendition; cited bodies, journal copy, data and code were not read or independently reproduced.
Full supplied v2 manuscript; originals and simulations unverified
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- HST trials assume the moon exists and optimistic381ppm noise with removable breathing/ramp effects.29 Bayes-factor passes are insufficient; seven also meet fit and parameter-recovery tests. Conditional10±3% recovery is neither an existence posterior nor90% disproof. The parent candidate’s1% false-positive rate does not become99% existence probability.
- Shared candidate posteriors, earlier HST systematics and literature accounts are dependencies, not new observing receipts. No comparable full JWST recovery test was performed. Starspots and visibility constraints remain; March24,2023 and at-least2033 are historical conditional forecasts, with no current calendar or later observation verification.
- Official submission March24,2022 differs from receivedv2 September13, native preprint/PDF creation September14 and accepted July20. Both authors list Columbia affiliations; Cassese is the correspondence author, with no actual correspondence received. Journal DOI10.1093/mnras/stac2090 is metadata only.
- Table1 has75 rows0–74 and seven dark-green successes. Row10 contains T although its caption defines F/P/N; the meaning is unresolved. Metadata advertises six figures, with five numbered figures observed. Literal union wording and damaged extracted mathematical glyphs are retained; whole layouts do not certify every digit or reproduce the simulations.
- NASA Exoplanet Archive administration under a Caltech/NASA contract does not establish author funding, secret access or moon confirmation. The acknowledgment thanks Soichiro Hattori for manuscript comments and names Cool Worlds Lab donors; no government approach, private briefing or actual contact date/initiator is reported. The offered code/data repository and other cited originals remain unopened.
Cite this record
Ben Cassese, David Kipping. Kepler-1708 b-i is likely undetectable with HST. March 24, 2022. BioParity S7761. https://bioparity.io/sources/S7761Record data (JSON)