{"apiVersion":"1","version":"sha256:faade27e0b75b2aca6311142ff65347b4dacc153e8d28cbdf0e8a237319331f9","data":{"id":"S7761","title":"Kepler-1708 b-i is likely undetectable with HST","authors":["Ben Cassese","David Kipping"],"publishedDate":"2022-03-24","format":"Paper","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.13290","summary":"A simulation estimates HST recovery if the proposed Kepler-1708 moon exists. Seven of75 trials meet all requirements; conditional10±3% detectability is separate from the probability a moon exists. Optimistic systematics and JWST forecasts remain assumptions, with no independent detection or UAP claim.","subjects":["Research methods","Exoplanets","Statistical astronomy"],"people":["Ben Cassese","David Kipping"],"review":{"label":"Full supplied v2 manuscript; originals and simulations unverified","scope":"All8 received text pages and whole native layouts were read, including references, appendix, Figures1–5 and75-trial Table1:42,039 LF-normalized extracted characters. Root reviewed the whole analytical packet and exact pins. Official metadata advertises6 figures while only five numbered figures appear in this rendition; cited bodies, journal copy, data and code were not read or independently reproduced.","gaps":["HST trials assume the moon exists and optimistic381ppm noise with removable breathing/ramp effects.29 Bayes-factor passes are insufficient; seven also meet fit and parameter-recovery tests. Conditional10±3% recovery is neither an existence posterior nor90% disproof. The parent candidate’s1% false-positive rate does not become99% existence probability.","Shared candidate posteriors, earlier HST systematics and literature accounts are dependencies, not new observing receipts. No comparable full JWST recovery test was performed. Starspots and visibility constraints remain; March24,2023 and at-least2033 are historical conditional forecasts, with no current calendar or later observation verification.","Official submission March24,2022 differs from receivedv2 September13, native preprint/PDF creation September14 and accepted July20. Both authors list Columbia affiliations; Cassese is the correspondence author, with no actual correspondence received. Journal DOI10.1093/mnras/stac2090 is metadata only.","Table1 has75 rows0–74 and seven dark-green successes. Row10 contains T although its caption defines F/P/N; the meaning is unresolved. Metadata advertises six figures, with five numbered figures observed. Literal union wording and damaged extracted mathematical glyphs are retained; whole layouts do not certify every digit or reproduce the simulations.","NASA Exoplanet Archive administration under a Caltech/NASA contract does not establish author funding, secret access or moon confirmation. The acknowledgment thanks Soichiro Hattori for manuscript comments and names Cool Worlds Lab donors; no government approach, private briefing or actual contact date/initiator is reported. The offered code/data repository and other cited originals remain unopened."]},"familyId":"ARXIV-2203.13290-CASSESE-KIPPING-HST-DETECTABILITY","citationUrl":"https://bioparity.io/sources/S7761","citation":"Ben Cassese, David Kipping. Kepler-1708 b-i is likely undetectable with HST. March 24, 2022. BioParity S7761. https://bioparity.io/sources/S7761"}}